Graham Jeffries

Graham is a Spring 2010 graduate from Hampshire College. His Division III focused on regional food system analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Student group involvement included several manager positions at Mixed Nuts, maintenance and programming in the Community Garden and Greenwich Forest Garden, and other roles. During the Winter of 2008-09, he was as primary orgranizer for the 2nd Annual Northeast Regional Real Food Summit, held at UMass- Amherst. With funding from the Ray and Lorna Coppinger Grant Endowment, he designed and built a workstation computer for advanced GIS and computer modeling, which currently resides in Cole. He plans to live and work in the Valley until attending Graduate school in Fall 2011 studying food systems and regional planning.

Facing the Future of Food: a spatial and economic analysis of local food systems in MA

Abstract:

Spatial carrying capacity estimates for food production and distribution in Massachusetts are used to assess the potential for "re-localized" food systems in the Commonwealth. In this study I apply the concept of a "foodshed," or the area where food travels from, directly to food system analysis. I employed Geographic Information System (GIS) based hydrological modeling methods to observe the flow of Kilocalories (kcal) and protein within production models. In these models, kcals and protein are akin to water, rivers to roads, and topographical basins to areas of consumption. Soil, land use, road, and restaurant and retail datalayers were used to construct the models. Dietetic analyses for several annual agricultural production scenarios reflected current and hypothetical uses of cropland. Kcal and protein demand based on Daily Recommended Intake (DRI) values were derived from 2000 Census data at the block level and were spatially aggregated in two ways. Initially, demand was attributed to the restaurant and retail locations nearest to a population using Weighted Voronoi Diagrams. Due to technical limitations, demand was ultimately aggregated by 21 urban areas in the state. Flow Accumulation analyses showed where roads carried high volumes of nutrient flow. Nutrient flow values were then inversely weighted by distance and differential values were calculated to highlight areas suitable for distributors. The portion of demand met at each urban area was calculated for five production scenarios. Network-based suitability ranges for distributors were determined for each urban area. Results show that recent MA production could provide 6.5% and 11.4% of total kcal and protein demand, respectively. Hydrological foodshed modeling of distribution networks show potential to facilitate a transition towards stronger regional food systems.

Early Thesis Planning and Framework Questions

Here is a brief overview of the primary questions and strategies of the project. Written 11/20/09.

To provide a strong framework for my quantitative research, I will explore issues in food system planning, contemporary small- and mid-scale agriculture, food sector political economy, and visual data representation. I will give attention to the intersections of these issues with discourse surrounding “sustainability” and GIS research. The importance of interdisciplinary approaches is central to my consideration of these topics.

A thorough review of current literature on renewable agriculture and food systems will lend insight to current modes of food production, processing, and especially distribution. Here I hope to deepen my understanding of global-local dynamics in the food system. This background reading will allow me to integrate current critiques of the food system with conceptual transition models. A question throughout my project will be, “how can food system planning be used to address 'sustainability' issues in the short, medium, and long-term?”     I have chosen Massachusetts as my study area primarily because 1) agricultural and land use policies are decided at a town and state level rather than a regional level, 2) MA provides an interesting mix of agricultural capacity and urban populations, and 3) data at the state level has been previously compiled. My narrative will discus advantages and critiques of scaling in foodshed analysis. Why should or shouldn't state political lines define a study area? What challenges face regional (multi-state) food system planning (food safety regulations, etc.)? How might ecological constraints suggest different modes of analysis within a regional analysis?

Trends in American agriculture over the past 100 years show a notable decline in mid-scale agriculture. Economies of scale support centralized food production but fail to accredit and respond to the non-monetary needs of our nation's agricultural health. However, on the other side of the scale spectrum, many point out that small farms may not be able to feed the extent of our current populations effectively and with tracability. Agriculture-in-the-middle has potential to merge advantages from each of these poles. I will explore the this theme in both my writing and my GIS analysis. If research results are to be effectively communicated, complexity in the agri-food sector demands deliberate attempts to interpret data visually. GIS has great potential to fill this role as farms, food, and consumers exist within a spatial and temporal context. Visual representation and analysis can assist education, inform policy making, and support business transactions. Web integration is currently emerging as the new frontier for GIS and will consequently increase the availability of spatial data and analysis. My narrative will offer some insight into how web integration can improve food system data sharing, outreach, and visual accessibility. This might draw from publications as well as evidence from personal experiences with food system web interfaces.

Specific Research Questions     The first section of my analysis is largely descriptive of present distribution and production characteristics. Knowledge of current foodways will give light to the ecological limitations surrounding intensive and extensive farm expansion. An analysis using soil data, productivity index data, land use layers, and production statistics will answer questions like, “what is the range of ecological conditions currently used for growing crops and grazing animals?” and “how much land with similar conditions is potentially available for agriculture?” The range of and average suitability characteristics will differ between extensive (pasture and grassland) and intensive (cropland and perennial production) agriculture. One pervasive question throughout my project is, “how many people could be fed with in state agriculture?” A growing body of research has attempted to predict this figure for MA and other states. As the grain and reliability of relevant data deepens, these models become more accurate. Dietary, agronomic, logistical, and infrastructural conditions will inform my foodshed assessment. Economic questions will also be closely considered. Statistics on wages, input prices, and transport costs may shape the layout of a speculative model. I will build from the ecology of current farming patterns as well as the other factors listed above to model potential food production in MA. Multivariate equations will be used to generate a number of models, each reflecting different value hierarchies. For example, it is likely that deforestation could open a significant amount of land to agriculture, but how much change to the current landscape is desirable or socially accepted? How would a local food system change with continued suburban expansion? These are questions to which I cannot give conclusive answers. However, modeling these terrains can support lucidity in the process of policy and decision making. I hope that these methods will expand upon current literature on foodshed assessment. Many current publications focus on ecological, land use, and population factors in the food system. However, physical infrastructure mediates the spatial relationships between producers and consumers and is essential to a robust analysis. Proper handling and, in some cases, processing is required for goods to reach retail markets, institutions, and other non farm-direct outlets. My research will innovate by including food processing, distribution, and economic data. I seek to answer questions such as, “will the retail cost of local foods drop as infrastructure is developed?” Not only do the aforementioned considerations provide a more robust representation and analysis, but they also provide a richer framework for mapping evolution in the food system. This project aspires to fill gaps in publicly available agricultural knowledge. The Federal Agricultural Census provides data to the public, but much of it is censored for disclosure. Using spatial interpolation of Ag. Census statistics, I hope to map food systems at a closer grain that has previously been explored. To do so I will generate a farm database with land use data, geocoding, and automated internet query. Available farm number, size, production and financial stats will be overlayed on this data. These methods and tools can then be shared among interested groups and applied at any scale.

Academic History

F '09 Courses

Advanced GIS : Model Builder and Python Scripting (UMass - Graudate Level)

Local Food Systems (Hampshire NS-333)

S '09 Courses

South/South Economic Relations

Local Food Systems: 300 Level

Introduction to Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Group Independent Study - Permaculture Theory and Praxis - Focused on perennialized bioremediation (phyto and myco) of urban brownfields.

Group Independent Study - Advanced Computer Music Programming - Developed production and performance skills and researched post-GUI Human-Computer Interactivity mediums.

Volunteer position with the Holyoke Food and Fitness Policy Coucil - Collected and mapped the availability and price of fresh produce at grocers, convenient stores, and bodegas in Holyoke, MA. Data was used find good locations for produce vendor carts around the city.

F '08 Courses

The World Food System (Smith - Eco-213)

Engaging with the Community - Hunger and Food Security in the Connecticut River Valley (UMass Honors-292)

Appropriate Technology I

Independent Study - Art and Science of Food Fermentation - Focused on microbial succession in bean ferments and constraits facing semi-industrial small- and mid-scale food processing in Southeast Asia.

Continuing Hatha Yoga

S '08 Courses

Group Independent Study - The Local Food Challange - Examined the potential and limitations of eating exclusively from with a 150 mile range. Personal research investicated historical use of fermentation for food preservation in New England. Written work also presented the role of specific microbial actors the fermentation of some Brassica genus plants.

Nutritional Anthropology

Environment and Social Justice

Tea Ceremony and Japanese Culture (Amherst College)

Continuing Hatha Yoga

F '07 Courses

Philosophy of Ludwig Wittgenstein

Asian Religious Texts and Traditions

Introduction to the Buddhist Meditation Tradition

Buddhist Philosophy (Smith College - Phil-252)

Intermediate Hatha Yoga

S '07 Courses

Religion in Modern India

Culture, Society, and Ethnography

Group Independent Study - Enlightenment and the Postmodern Condition

Intermediate Hatha Yoga

Continuing Hatha Yoga

Jan 07 Courses

Readings in Literature and Medicine

F '06 Courses

Computing Concepts

Philosophy of Mind

Creative Electronics

Science and Politics of Water

Hatha Yoga